World Led by U.S. Poised for Fastest Growth Since 2010

Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg

Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.

 

The world economy is primed for its fastest expansion in four years, with the U.S. propelling the improvement in output.

Global growth will accelerate at least 3.4 percent in 2014 from less than 3 percent this year as the euro area recovers from recession and China and other emerging markets stabilize, according to economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and Morgan Stanley. The U.K. will be a standout, whileJapan risks damping the mood by suffering a mid-year slowdown after an April increase in sales taxes.

“So far it’s been a very bumpy, below-par and brittle expansion,” said Joachim Fels, co-chief global economist at Morgan Stanley in London. “Next year could bring a very important transition: a transition to a sounder, safer and more sustainable recovery.”

The upturn should prove bullish for equities and bearish for bonds. If it boosts corporate confidence in the durability of growth, it could further fuel demand, raising the odds that 2014 will break the pattern of recent years and come in better, rather than worse, than projected.

“An improving global-growth picture is widely forecast but, in our view, also still doubted in the investor community,” said Dominic Wilson, chief markets economist at Goldman Sachs in New York. “We therefore see room for markets to price in a better cyclical story.”

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